Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
